World Cup Predictions

At this point in the four-year sporting cycle, it is a traditional blogging thing to do to make predictions for the forthcoming World Cup. I also have a personal tradition of having a gamble on the outcomes of the first round groups. This kind of bet is called a 'perm' - nothing to do with Kevin Keegan - it is short for permutation and means that I make a large number of small bets on many different possible combinations. As a consequence, I have a situation rather like the lottery. My bet costs ten pounds in total and if three of my six predictions prove to be correct then I will win a decent amount - probably something like one hundred pounds - but if all six come in then I will win a happily astronomical sum of money. It sounds great in practice but I have been doing this sort of bet since 1994 and I haven't had any luck so far. I always back outsiders, and a few outsiders usually end up doing well, but it always seems to be the wrong ones, unfortunately.

My predictions are below. I must clarify that these are not necessarily the teams that I think will win the groups. Rather, I think they are ones that have a chance of pulling off a shock and hence offer decent value to the punter. The prices were obtained from Ladbrokes. Other bookmakers seem to be rather stingier for those backing outsiders.

Group A: Poland at 7-2
Group B: Paraguay at 7-1
Group C: Ivory Coast at 9-1
Group E: Ghana at 12-1
Group G: South Korea at 8-1
Group H: Ukraine at 2-1